COUNTERING SOFT POWER

US President Donald Trump is on the verge of setting a record for the number of high-profile decisions and decrees issued within the first 100 days of his second term. Shortly after assuming office, the new White House leader suspended numerous foreign aid operations for a period of 90 days. And now, in fact, he has shut down the largest American organisation responsible for providing assistance to other nations – USAID.

USAID's activities have been halted. Its employees have been placed on mandatory leave. For now, the agency is formally overseen by Secretary of State Mark Rubio. However, what will happen next remains unclear, even to seasoned observers. It is evident that Washington is unlikely to abandon humanitarian aid as an instrument of American policy. There is no doubt, though, that these programmes will undergo significant revisions and reductions. Moreover, it is certain that USAID itself will be subjected to "sequestration."

Azerbaijani President's forecast has materialised

Today in Baku, while commenting on Donald Trump's decision, many experts are drawing attention to the fact that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev essentially foresaw the dissolution of USAID. In his interview with Dmitry Kiselev in late December 2024, the Azerbaijani President remarked, "There was a time in our country when grant-makers and grant-givers felt at ease, but we put an end to that. That is why any grant issued by any entity, whether Azerbaijani or foreign, must be registered, and relevant authorities determine whether to permit it or not." Furthermore, as Ilham Aliyev highlighted, "Assistance should be unobtrusive. Because how will Biden's administration be remembered in history? For many things, but among them is imposition. 'We want to help you.' And we respond, 'No, thank you, that's fine.' 'No, but we insist.' Here they have such an organisation, USAID, which insists on helping, but for some reason, not where we need it." In response to Kiselev's comment, "It is banned in Russia," the Azerbaijani President stated, "It is not banned in our country yet. But I believe Trump may ban it."

And, as reports from Washington now indicate, the President of Azerbaijan was correct. Trump has indeed shut down USAID. The staff of the agency's office in Azerbaijan have "gone into hiding" and are not responding to journalists' inquiries. There are numerous questions surrounding USAID's activities in Azerbaijan, especially in recent years when the agency was led by Samantha Power.

Suffice it to recall USAID's funding of various NGOs and other grant-based institutions that were, in reality, involved in political provocations. However, there is another, special circumstance—the Vardanian Case.

"Azerbaijan's Nuremberg" and USAID

The Azerbaijani media, including R+, has extensively covered the trial of the top figures of the overthrown occupation junta in Azerbaijan. Today, Ruben Vardanian, a former Kremlin oligarch, is among those being held accountable for their actions before an Azerbaijani court. A substantial list of charges has been brought against him, including aggressive warfare, forcible seizure of power, financing of terrorism, illegal arms trade, and much more.

During his 'Golden Age' in Russia, Ruben Vardanian established the Aurora Prize. Named in honour of certain Aurora (Arshaluys) Mardiganian, who "survived the genocide," travelled halfway around the world, and settled in the United States, where she authored the book Torn Armenia. The symbol on the award is the Armenian so-called 'eternity sign,' which Yerevan actively employs, including in military insignia. The prize is granted for humanitarian achievements purportedly "on behalf of the survivors of the Armenian Genocide."

In 2018, the selection committee for this award included… Samantha Power, who also authored the book A Problem from Hell: America and the Age of Genocide (2002). Naturally, the reference here is to the so-called Armenian genocide.

This already constituted a serious conflict of interest. After all, Ruben Vardanian was the founder and owner of the largest, even by Russian standards, money-laundering venture known as Troika-Dialog. Vardanian's move to Garabagh, where he assumed the role of "state minister" in the occupation junta, created more than just a conflict of interest for Samantha Power. However, the Joe Biden administration saw nothing suspicious in the close partnership between the USAID director and the Kremlin-linked provocateur. Understandably, this influenced Baku's perception of USAID.

Sensational impact of a long-overdue solution

The dissolution of USAID, as announced by Donald Trump, has taken many by surprise. The agency was widely regarded as a key instrument of American soft power, having been established in 1961 by President John F. Kennedy. USAID consolidated several organisations and agencies involved in foreign aid programmes, including the promotion of democracy and American interests.

USAID's budgets were substantial, and the sheer number of grants and programmes implemented by the agency made it challenging to track them all. At various stages of its operations, the agency was accused of having CIA operatives operating under its cover. However, using such cover in intelligence work is a traditional method. If there had been an outcry against USAID for serving as a front for the intelligence agency, leading to a scandal comparable to the exposure of Operation Condor, the Iran-Contra affair, or something similar, it might have been considered "normal." However, a very different kind of scandal surrounds USAID. Trump's team decided to investigate how taxpayers' money was actually spent, and the findings were shocking.

The White House published some of the most absurd USAID expenditures and programmes. For instance, $2.5 million was spent on promoting DEI (Diversity, Equality, and Inclusion) in Serbia, $70,000 was allocated to stage a DEI musical in Ireland, and $47,000 went towards a transgender opera in Colombia. Another $32,000 cost American taxpayers a comic strip about transgender individuals in Peru. Two million dollars were used to support LGBT activism and sex reassignment surgeries in Guatemala, while $6 million funded tourism development in Egypt, a country that attracts many visitors eager to see the pyramids.

Hundreds of millions of dollars were channelled into funding "irrigation canals, farm equipment, and even fertilisers that facilitated unprecedented poppy cultivation and heroin production in Afghanistan," benefiting the Taliban. As the White House administration emphasises, "The list could literally go on and on – and it has been happening for decades." Now, Trump's team promises to put an end to it.

"Fight your own battles so that others will fear you."

USAID is the largest, but not the sole US agency dealing with foreign aid. Concerns have been raised about the effectiveness of this sector, even before Trump's election and the appointment of Elon Musk to the governing team. NGOs, which are often seen as a key tool of American influence, have faced criticism. It is also important to note the history of the American presence in Afghanistan, which has not always been successful. Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the country was effectively ceded to the Taliban, leading to a period of profound challenges in Washington. Former US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates offered a striking assessment of the situation, stating, "In Kabul and throughout the country, we, along with our coalition partners and NGOs, often decided on development projects without consulting the Afghans, let alone collaborating with them or through them on what they wanted and needed."This scenario bears striking similarities to the current context in Azerbaijan.

Discussions regarding the necessity for modification of US foreign programmes emerged during Biden's tenure, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken remarking, "We will not promote democratisation through costly military interventions or attempts to forcibly remove authoritarian regimes. We have attempted this in the past, and it proved unsuccessful. Despite our noble intentions, these endeavours have ultimately been unsuccessful and have cast aspersions on the very concept of democracy promotion."

While there was a clear discrepancy between rhetoric and reality, the statements of the former Secretary of State underscore a persistent demand within the American political class, even before the presidency of Donald Trump, to reevaluate foreign aid strategies. It became evident that the tools previously relied upon were no longer as effective as previously assumed.

It is evident that USAID, originally established as a means to advance American influence, has recently been subject to scrutiny due to a series of controversies. These have highlighted the potential repercussions of the agency's actions, particularly in countries eager to collaborate with Washington. A notable instance is Georgia, where USAID's electoral assistance, amounting to over $100 million, was instead allocated to post-election riots and provocations. This led to a decline in Tbilisi's willingness to engage with the Biden administration, despite Georgia's pro-Western stance.

Azerbaijan had a long-standing and fruitful relationship with the United States, but this also experienced a deterioration under the Biden administration. The provocative activities of USAID played a significant role in this deterioration.

In light of these developments, it is noteworthy that Donald Trump chose to dissolve USAID.