BARGAINING IN PLAY?

The situation regarding possible negotiations about the fate of war and peace in Ukraine remains murky. Despite Washington’s diplomatic efforts, scepticism persists regarding the timelines promised by Trump for ending the conflict. Meanwhile, the American leader shocked the international community by conditioning US support for Kiev on access to Ukraine's rare earth metals. Another surprising revelation came when Donald Trump admitted he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin several times in attempts to discuss a potential ceasefire.

Washington demands elections in Ukraine

On February 1, US presidential envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, stated that Kiev should hold parliamentary and presidential elections despite the war.

"Most democratic countries hold elections during wartime. I think it’s important. I think it’s good for democracy. The beauty of a strong democracy is that you have more than one person who can run," Reuters quoted Kellogg as saying.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would not sign a possible peace deal with Vladimir Zelensky, arguing that, according to Ukraine's Constitution, Zelensky’s term had expired, and he was no longer considered the legitimate head of state.

Clearly, a negotiation process between Washington and Moscow over conditions to end the war in Ukraine has already begun. Unconfirmed reports even suggest that a phone conversation took place between the US and Russian presidents. Trump’s assertion that his administration had already held "very serious" negotiations with Russia on ending the war supports this notion.

Reacting to these developments, Zelensky warned that excluding Ukraine from these talks would be "very dangerous." He noted that his team maintains contact with Trump's administration, though at a general level, and he expects personal meetings soon to reach more detailed agreements.

The 'doves' promote their agenda

In September 2021, Russia and the US had already held talks on Ukraine without Ukraine's participation. Back then, Kiev chose to overlook this.

Two years ago, Trump, still a former president at the time, warned that humanity was approaching the Third World War. Appealing to the faction of the US political establishment advocating for limited arms supplies to Ukraine and dialogue with Russia, Trump sought to strengthen his position among those promoting the reduction of global nuclear war risks. He emphasized his relationship with Putin as a condition for stopping the war, signalling that he alone within the American elite had not only constructive dialogue experience with Moscow but also a positive outcome. In other words, Trump suggested he was the person who could end the war if re-elected.

In the current context, Trump seems determined to prove he keeps his promises. Notably, he made this statement two weeks before President Joe Biden’s historic visit to Kiev in 2023.

Unexpectedly, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley also spoke about potential Russia-Ukraine negotiations. On 16 February, he told the Financial Times that the war would likely end at the negotiating table.

"It will be virtually impossible for the Russians to achieve their political objectives by military means. It’s unlikely that Russia is going to conquer Ukraine. That’s just not going to happen," Milley said, adding that Ukraine’s complete expulsion of Russian forces from occupied territories would be "extremely difficult" and would essentially require the collapse of the Russian army.

This was not the first time senior US military officials suggested the war would end through negotiations. In November 2022, Milley angered Ukrainian officials by suggesting they should leverage Russian losses to negotiate a peaceful settlement. He later clarified that Ukraine should decide if, when, and how to negotiate with Russia but did not change his ultimate stance, despite being a vocal critic of Trump.

Weak hopes for Europe

This is not about a pro-Trump or anti-Trump approach; it’s about approaches based on an objective assessment of the situation. The pragmatically-minded US president is calculating the necessity of saving funds allocated to support Ukraine and preventing global escalation, which threatens not just rising costs but US involvement in an armed conflict.

As for Ukrainian leadership, though Trump’s position on quickly ending the conflict did not catch them off guard, they were unprepared for such swift moves. In these circumstances, Ukraine’s only remaining allies are in Europe, where governments initially committed to military and political support for Kiev and now insist on continuing military actions despite the difficult frontline situation. Both Brussels and leading European capitals still lack their own consolidated proposals for a peaceful settlement.

Although Zelensky’s peace plan is no longer referenced, official Kiev insists on European participation in upcoming negotiations based on a new peace initiative. This may not change much, but it could prevent Ukraine from being in a clear minority.

However, with European countries facing significant economic and political pressure from Washington, their anxious gaze increasingly turns westward. Amid Trump’s provocative remarks about Greenland, France even threatened to send military forces to protect the Danish territory from a possible US invasion. Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, once a frequent guest in Kiev promising full support, is now seeking aid from her allies, seemingly no longer focused on Ukraine.

NATO, analysing the front, recently pointed to the "wrong direction" of the Ukrainian frontline. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told the German publication Bild that allies must prevent Russia from achieving its goals, while also acknowledging that any future agreement should ensure a lasting peace.

Kiev’s response and Washington's reaction

Ukraine reacted negatively to the US call for elections following a ceasefire agreement with Russia. Presidential Communications Adviser Dmitry Litvin said the call seemed like a "failed plan" if that was all it entailed.

Yet surprises from the new US administration for Kiev did not end there. Trump stated that US aid to Ukraine would continue in exchange for rare earth metals. In response, Zelensky unexpectedly acknowledged that Trump’s proposals were part of the "peace plan" the Ukrainian leader had announced back in September 2024.

"We have enough [metals], and you see that since 2014, Russia has occupied our lands. There were really large reserves of our minerals there. We are open to all of this being developed with our partners who help us defend our land (...). And this is completely fair. I spoke about this back in September when we had a meeting with President Trump in New York," Zelensky said.

By framing his peace plan as involving Trump indirectly, Zelensky offered a unique opportunity for Trump to support it. The price of a potential deal: Ukraine's active participation in peace negotiations. Seizing the moment, Zelensky even proposed Ukraine be given nuclear weapons as a sufficient security guarantee if it did not join NATO.

However, Washington seems unwilling to bargain with Kiev. White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said the US must recoup any money spent on helping Ukraine. Discussions are ongoing on how best to ensure this repayment, with no timeline yet set.

Meanwhile, Trump was more specific:

"We’ve invested almost $300 billion in helping Ukraine, while Europe has given $200 billion less. Biden never demanded money from them. All he did was give money away," Trump said, stressing that Europe should allocate more to Ukraine than the US.

Given the scale of Ukrainian mineral wealth, this statement likely wasn't rhetorical but a reflection of Washington's conditions and the realities of modern politics.