BATTLE FOR GAZA

In the final days of February, Hamas released six Israeli hostages, which would have completed the first phase of the January 17 agreement on a temporary ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The transfer of the bodies of the four deceased hostages was also scheduled.

The agreement is comprised of three phases, beginning with a six-week ceasefire and prisoner exchange, followed by the release of hostages and a permanent ceasefire. The final phase involves the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the reconstruction of the Strip, expected to take three to five years. However, as is often the case, adjustments to the agreement have been made, and these adjustments are not always constructive. For instance, the primary stakeholders involved in the political process have significantly divergent plans for the further development of the enclave.

Gaza Without the Palestinians?

On February 4, President Donald Trump hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and expressed support for the latter's proposal to relocate Palestinians to a safe place where they "can be happy". He also suggested the development of a "Riviera of the Middle East" in Gaza. This proposal was met with strong condemnation from most countries worldwide, particularly those in the region where the Palestinians were to be resettled, namely Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Jordan issued a more neutral statement, though it also expressed its discontent with the American leader's proposal.

Various estimates put the current population of Gaza at between 2.2 and 2.5 million, with a significant proportion concentrated in the southern part of the Strip. These people are deprived of basic living conditions and the freedom to leave the Strip. Gaza is rapidly becoming a vast Middle Eastern reserve, with growing humanitarian concerns. As a result of military operations, the housing stock, social and economic infrastructure have been almost completely destroyed, leaving an overwhelming number of residents internally displaced. The number of war victims has now exceeded 60,000, and the sector is not functioning well in terms of work, living, studying and treatment of residents. Reconstruction work could take decades and require almost $100 billion. The sector is not only a humanitarian crisis, but also an environmental disaster zone. There are currently at least 30 million cubic metres of construction waste there, weighing approximately 50 million tonnes in total. This waste includes not only concrete blocks and other construction debris, but also explosives and bodies in ruins.

Restoration For Profit

It is evident that Israel cannot resolve the problems in Gaza alone. At the same time, Tel Aviv also does not want to relinquish control of that territory. In this context, the United States has a unique opportunity to contribute to maintaining Tel Aviv's control over Gaza while also playing a role in sponsoring reconstruction. However, Trump has made it clear that he will not do so at the expense of his own interests, and will instead seek to leverage the recovery process for his own objectives.

During an interview with Fox News, the American president articulated his vision for Gaza, characterising its management as an investment project. His strategy involves a temporary lease of the territory by the US, with the aim of leveraging it for investment purposes. The primary challenge, as perceived by the president, is the potential threat to investment posed by the local residents. It is widely acknowledged that a significant proportion of the Palestinian population in Gaza aligns with Hamas, which is ideologically aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood. Observations indicate a high level of radical sentiment in the Gaza Strip, particularly in the context of the destruction and suffering caused by Israel. Current predictions indicate that Hamas has the potential to resurface in the territory, casting doubt on the viability of any US or Israeli initiatives to "revive Gaza."In light of these developments, the concept of resettling Palestinians from Gaza has emerged. It appears that we are witnessing the implementation of long-term plans and a series of subsequent actions, which may encompass the establishment of a dedicated fund for the "reconstruction" of the Strip, potentially involving reputable financial institutions. The American leader's current position suggests a probing of the ground to identify the mood among regional and international players regarding the prospects of his actions, with the aim of preparing the international political community for them. However, it is currently difficult to consider his plan as realistic. The Arab world has no interest in importing significant numbers of people sympathetic to or members of the Muslim Brotherhood. This could potentially lead to an escalation of radical sentiment in these countries and strengthen the position of the non-systemic opposition. Furthermore, no Arab country would want to be seen as complicit in a policy of ethnic cleansing that Trump's "plan" would de facto implement in Gaza.

The Arab Response to Washington

Under these circumstances, the Arab countries are developing their own reconstruction project for Gaza to avoid appearing as complete outsiders.

On February 21, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, hosted a meeting in Riyadh with the heads of Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and the Palestinian territory. The event, described as a "fraternal informal meeting" by Saudi state television, did not address the ongoing conflict in Gaza, Trump's proposal, or the Arab plan to rebuild the region.

Meanwhile, it is understood that the primary objective of the summit was to address the reconstruction of Gaza. According to a report published in the Egyptian government newspaper Al Ahram Weekly, Cairo initiated the adoption of a 10-20-year plan for the reconstruction of Gaza, to be financed by the Gulf States. However, it is projected that 2.1 million Gazans will remain in the Strip, on the condition that Hamas is excluded from governing the enclave.

According to sources, the initiative has yet to receive the full support of Arab countries, who are divided over how Gaza should be managed. Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly stated that his country could fully restore the enclave in three years to a state that would be "better than it was before", without specifying how he would achieve this. If a permanent ceasefire is reached in the coming months, Egyptian authorities believe that their plans could be realised before the end of President Trump's term. However, an assessment of the situation suggests that a full reconstruction of the enclave will still take much longer.

According to a joint statement by the World Bank, the European Union, and the United Nations, it will take at least three years to restore public services, including healthcare, education, and debris removal. Full revival of the enclave is estimated to take 10 years and cost more than $50 billion, with the cost of rebuilding the housing stock alone estimated at $15 billion. However, Egypt appears undeterred by these figures. The country's Prime Minister has confirmed that Cairo's reconstruction plan takes these estimates into account. Egypt is undoubtedly pursuing its own objectives, and the involvement of Egyptian property developers in the reconstruction of Gaza will generate billions of dollars in contracts. Given Egypt's proximity to the Gaza Strip, the delivery of construction materials and qualified construction teams will not pose significant logistical challenges.

Despite the rapid response of Arab countries in presenting a counter-proposal to Trump regarding Gaza reconstruction, experts have identified significant challenges.

Restoration as a strategy is viewed with caution, as any efforts may be hindered if the fragile truce in Gaza is broken and the territory is engulfed in war once again. Additionally, the plan's viability hinges on Israel's cooperation, as it effectively controls the Strip. While Israel has expressed support for Trump's depopulation plans in Gaza and the establishment of a "Directorate for the Voluntary Departure of Gaza Residents", concerns remain about the feasibility of this initiative. The Israeli side asserts that this initiative aims to streamline the procedural aspects of Gaza residents' emigration, however, Gazans have expressed an overwhelming reluctance to leave their homeland. The Palestinian Authority, based in the West Bank, has expressed its readiness to assume governance responsibilities in Gaza following the war, a stance that has not been universally accepted in Israel.

The Hamas leadership has stated that it will decide who will govern Gaza, while the movement's spokesman Hazem Qasim has previously asserted that the group is not "clinging to power". The group's leadership has made it clear that it is ready to negotiate the future of the enclave if necessary. In contrast, Egypt believes that the future of Gaza should be decided by its inhabitants themselves. In anticipation of this development, work has commenced on establishing an interim committee to oversee Gaza's reconstruction. Other Arab countries are also taking proactive steps. Qatar, a long-time supporter of Gaza, has emphasised the importance of the Palestinians determining their future governance. The UAE has also expressed its readiness to contribute to post-war reconstruction efforts in Gaza. This would be subject to an invitation from a reformed Palestinian Authority and Israel's commitment to recognise a future Palestinian state.

Despite the positive intentions of Arab countries, Hamas remains cautious about the plans to rebuild the sector. The group believes that, as these plans are realised, their own role in the region will be diminished. They have therefore been quick to warn that any entity that assumes Tel Aviv's position in the Gaza Strip will be treated in the same way as Israel itself. They have also called on regional states not to become "agents" of Tel Aviv.