ON THE BRINK OF WAR

India and Pakistan, two nuclear powers, are once again on the brink of all-out war, which could lead to a major regional crisis and, at worst, even a world conflict.

“Red” tensions

Both governments have already urged their citizens to leave the other country immediately. The Pakistani administration has announced a suspension of trade relations with India and closed its airspace to Indian aircraft. Following recent developments, the Indian authorities have taken the decision to immediately suspend visas for Pakistani citizens. In addition, the main border crossing has been closed, the Indus Water Treaty suspended and Pakistani diplomats expelled. Defence, naval and air force advisers have been declared persona non grata.

It is vital to note that both parties have demonstrated their preparedness for military intervention. We are aware of the deployment of small arms and mortar fire, as well as fighter jets and long-range radar detection aircraft. We can also confirm the use of heavy artillery. The region has a long memory of major conflicts between Pakistan and India, including the first post-independence war in 1947, followed by wars in 1965, 1971 and 1999, as well as smaller incidents in 2016 and 2019. It is important to note that none of these clashes have resulted in any significant territorial changes, and that tensions have been successfully defused on each occasion.

The likelihood of de-escalation remains uncertain. In any event, the 2021 ceasefire, which was established following a series of confrontations, has already been breached. Even in the most favourable scenario, it will be necessary to establish new relations.

Consequences

Following the terrorist attack on 22 April in the Pahalgam district of Jammu and Kashmir, there was another escalation. I would like to clarify that this is in the disputed territory claimed by both India and Pakistan, which is currently under Indian control. A group of Indian tourists on a horseback ride in the Baisaran Valley were subjected to gunfire by armed men, resulting in the tragic loss of 26 lives and injuries to 17. The group known as the Resistance Front, which is affiliated with the Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist organisation, has claimed responsibility. The latter operates primarily in Pakistan and aims to annex Kashmir.

The Resistance Front has cited the Indian authorities' issuance of construction permits for housing projects in Kashmir, with a capacity of over 80,000 individuals, as the primary catalyst for the recent terrorist attack. The Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has referred to the incident as a terrorist attack. New Delhi believes that Islamabad has not taken sufficient action to address the issue of cross-border terrorism, despite its previous commitments. Islamabad categorically denies the accusations, emphasising the lack of "credible investigation and verifiable evidence". India's attempts to attribute the Kashmir attack to Pakistan have been dismissed as "frivolous, devoid of rationality and logic". Khawaja Asif, Pakistan's defence minister, has called for an international investigation into the attack.

Islamabad also regards the announcement by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the suspension of the Indus Waters Agreement between the two countries as an "act of aggression". In accordance with the position adopted by Pakistani authorities, any action aimed at hindering or diverting the flow of water in the Indus basin will be regarded as a potential incitement of armed conflict.

The water situation is one of the consequences of the so-called "Radcliffe Line", which delineated the territories of India and Pakistan, necessitating consideration of natural boundaries, water sources and religious buildings.  In 1960, a treaty was concluded that established the terms of use of the waters of the three eastern rivers of the Indus system. The treaty stipulated that India would have the right to use these waters up to the Pakistani border, while Pakistan would be permitted to use the three western rivers. However, it should be noted that the headwaters of five of the six rivers of the Indus system are located in India, and that India has constructed more than 50 dams. New Delhi cannot abruptly cut off Pakistan's water supply because India would then have to find an alternative destination for it. However, it has the capacity to halt the dissemination of data pertaining to water releases from dams and weirs, or floods, and it can also cease the release of minimum amounts of water during the dry season. A "war" of this kind could have a significant impact on Pakistan's agricultural and energy sectors, given the country's substantial population and its current water shortage, which is the largest in the world.

However, the situation with water resources is very challenging across the Middle East. In Central and South Asia, experts still consider the water crisis to be a significant contributing factor to conflict. For instance, Khalid Hussain Baat, chairman of the National Farmers' Union of Pakistan, has already stated that the country is facing water shortages due to climate change, and that India's actions may further exacerbate the situation.

The extent of the problems

Consequently, the Kashmir conflict continues to be one of the most pressing issues in international relations, and a resolution remains elusive. At present, the territory commonly known as Kashmir is divided into several zones that are shared by India, Pakistan and China.

It is the opinion of observers that the Pahalgam terrorist attack was a setback for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Following this, on 5 August 2019, India repealed Article 370 of the Constitution, which had given Jammu and Kashmir special status for more than half a century, and divided the state into two separate administrative entities. The decision to proceed with the move was primarily driven by two key objectives. Firstly, the need to exercise greater control over the region's economic development, with a particular focus on the tourism sector. Secondly, the ambition to enhance the capabilities of Indian security forces.

Conversely, several experts have proposed that the exacerbation of the situation could be utilised to address internal issues in both India and Pakistan. For instance, India's highly diverse society is confronted with challenges related to caste, religion and language, including the Hindustani and Tamil languages.

In Pakistan, the ongoing protests are occurring against the backdrop of the economic crisis following the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. It is therefore observed by experts that there are endeavours to consolidate the nation against an external aggressor, both internally and externally.

If we consider the geopolitical environment, it is noteworthy that the Kashmir attack took place when Modi was visiting Saudi Arabia. At the same time, US Vice President James Vance visited India with his wife Usha, who has Indian roots. The agenda includes the subject of the strengthening of relations between the US and India, which is considered by Washington to be one of the key elements in the strategy of dealing with China in South Asia. In contrast, Pakistan and China enjoy cordial relations, extending to both trade and military collaboration. It is evident that China has no interest in pursuing a military conflict or instigating instability in the region. This is evidenced by the substantial investments it has made in Pakistan.

A grave concern in the event of a crisis between India and Pakistan is the potential for both countries to possess nuclear weapons. This constitutes a form of assurance against a significant potential conflict. The likelihood of a nuclear confrontation is minimal. It is evident that neither party requires a nuclear apocalypse or direct confrontation involving conventional forces.

It is probable that the two parties will engage in localised strikes for a period of time, after which there will be an effort to de-escalate the situation. As Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has stated, the Pakistani army has no plans to launch military action against India unless there is an escalation on the part of the latter. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the current global situation, which includes the threat of major war in several places at once. This, of course, increases general nervousness. In light of these developments, the repercussions of a terrorist attack in the Jammu and Kashmir region could be of a long-term nature, and an escalation in tension could lead to the destabilisation of the region.

The presence of Afghanistan, a country which poses significant challenges, in the immediate vicinity is sufficient evidence for this.

The impact of the ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan is felt most acutely by the local population. However, if the situation were to change, they could be better off and more prosperous, given the region's tourism potential and its historical role as a crossroads of caravan routes between the Far East, Central Asia, the Middle East and South Asia. The region's economy is now extremely fragile due to long-standing wars, rising unemployment and serious security concerns.

Terrorist organisations, which are difficult to control due to geographical conditions, can dictate their agenda in the region. Despite efforts by the international community at various levels to mediate in order to resolve India-Pakistan relations, these attempts have unfortunately not been successful. It is highly likely that Kashmir will continue to be a prominent region in Asia, with the potential to periodically capture the attention of the global media.