TRIUMPH OF NAWROCKI

The conservative and Eurosceptic Karol Nawrocki has won Poland’s presidential election, an event significant not only for Poland but for Europe as a whole. The continent continues to experience a sharp divide between those who support tradition and those who reject it.

Liberal Tusk on the brink of defeat

Karol Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian from Gdansk backed by the opposition national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, won the presidential run-off on June 1, securing 50.89% of the vote with a turnout of 71.63%. His opponent, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski of the liberal Civic Platform (CP), received 49.11%. This marks Trzaskowski’s second presidential election defeat; he lost to conservative Andrzej Duda in 2020. Nawrocki will succeed Duda as head of state on August 6, when the winner of the 2025 presidential election is inaugurated.

The election results highlight the strengthening of far-right forces. In the first round on May 18, Slawomir Menzen of the New Hope party and Grzegorz Braun of the Confederation of the Polish Crown took third and fourth places, receiving 14.8% and 6.3% respectively—almost 21% combined—while turnout exceeded 67%. This confirms a notable “correction” in Poland’s political balance, demonstrated by Nawrocki’s triumph.

Immediately after the election, Nawrocki identified a key issue affecting the entire right wing: he pledged to “unite the patriotic camp in Poland, the camp of people who want a normal Poland without illegal migrants.” His victory was largely secured by uniting “patriots” opposed to the increasing flow of migrants. Many supporters of Menzen and Braun shifted their support to Nawrocki, ensuring PiS’s success.

This indicates that confrontation between the conservative president and the liberal government will continue. Nawrocki intends to continue the policies of outgoing President Duda, who used his veto power to block many legislative initiatives from Donald Tusk's liberal government. This veto power is a significant check in Poland’s parliamentary republic system.

Although Poland is a parliamentary republic where the president’s powers over domestic and foreign policy are limited, the president can veto laws passed by parliament. Overriding such vetoes requires a two-thirds majority, which Tusk’s government lacks—the coalition holds only 245-248 of 460 seats in the Sejm. Consequently, the government has been unable to advance measures such as easing abortion laws, legalising civil unions for same-sex couples, and supporting Ukraine’s NATO accession. With Nawrocki’s presidency, these initiatives will likely face continued obstruction.

Moreover, Nawrocki’s promise to block government decisions casts doubt on the viability of Tusk’s coalition. The government’s declining popularity since its 2023 election victory was confirmed by these presidential results. Following Nawrocki’s win, PiS may pursue various methods to remove Tusk’s government—from no-confidence votes to dissolving parliament and calling early elections.

PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski described the presidential election results as a “red card” for the government and asserted that “it must go.” To achieve this, PiS may seek to attract the most conservative members of the coalition—the 28 deputies from the Polish Peasant Party elected via the Third Way bloc led by Sejm Speaker Szymon Cholownia. Cholownia ran for president but secured only 5% in the first round. The Peasant Party may align with PiS and other right-wing forces to preserve its influence. Should the government collapse, a coalition between PiS and the far-right Confederation party is possible.

If Nawrocki and Kaczynski cannot dissolve the ruling coalition or prompt snap elections, Poland will continue under divided governance—a president and government opposing each other—until parliamentary elections in autumn 2027.

Undeniably, Polish society remains deeply divided. Despite winning with a narrow margin (1.5%), the right-conservative camp celebrates victory. Whether PiS-aligned forces consolidate this success depends on both Nawrocki’s leadership and the ruling coalition’s ability to mobilise support anew.

Poland First

Should conflict between government and president persist, it will impact Poland's foreign policy course. The country will undoubtedly maintain a pro-Western strategy; however, Nawrotsky clearly leans toward a pro-American rather than pro-European stance. He openly expresses loyalty to US President Donald Trump. Indeed, Nawrotsky's campaign slogan—"Poland First, Poles First"—is essentially an analogue to Trump's famous slogan "America First" (originally borrowed from US President Woodrow Wilson).

Trump demonstrates aversion towards many liberal European leaders but openly supports conservative nationalist politicians. It can be expected that US policy towards Poland will favour President Nawrotsky over Tusk's EU-aligned government. Nawrotsky intends to deepen strategic cooperation with the United States, which may manifest as an increase in US troop presence on Polish soil and strengthening Warsaw's role as Washington's key ally on NATO's eastern flank.

Accordingly, some cooling in relations between Warsaw and Brussels is likely. This may go beyond Nawrotsky's announced withdrawal from the EU migration pact—a step justified by his call for revising its provisions to allow deportation of illegal migrants rather than integration.

It cannot be ruled out that under Nawrotsky—whose Euroscepticism surpasses Duda’s—Poland could become as much a headache for Brussels as Hungary and Slovakia under their current prime ministers Viktor Orban and Robert Fico respectively. However, this potential estrangement would not be an exact copy of Hungary’s or Slovakia’s experience since Poland remains more pro-Western than many other EU and NATO members.

Poland aspires not just to follow but to lead Euro-Atlantic strategic guidelines—a factor reflected in its stance on the Russia-Ukraine war.

Nawrotsky opposes Ukraine’s possible NATO membership and accelerated EU accession, aligning with Trump’s approach. Yet he supports aid to Ukraine and advocates halting any further Russian military or geopolitical advances in Europe.

Russia’s negative view of Nawrotsky is unsurprising. As former head of Gdansk’s World War II Museum and Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, he initiated removal of several Red Army monuments in Poland—actions Moscow deemed criminal—and placed him on Russia’s wanted list.

Nawrotsky also advocates reducing social payments to Ukrainians who fled to Poland after Russia’s invasion and protecting Polish farmers from Ukrainian competition amid Ukraine’s EU accession prospects. He emphasises resolving complex historical issues between Poland and Ukraine—particularly demanding Ukraine assume responsibility for the Volyn tragedy: mass extermination of Poles in 1943. He believes that “a country incapable of answering for such a brutal crime against 120,000 neighbours cannot be part of international alliances.”

The "historicism" of this Polish president-historian will also shape his stance toward Germany. Following PiS and incumbent President Duda’s position, Nawrotsky will seek reparations totaling $1.3 trillion from Berlin for Nazi Germany's invasion of Poland. The Tusk government abandoned this claim; however, Nawrotsky is likely to revive it, further alienating Poland from European elites among whom Germany wields significant influence.

Overall, Poland’s presidential election highlights divisions not only within Poland but across Europe as well. The rise of far-right and right-conservative camps clashes with liberal circles’ efforts to maintain political and ideological dominance.

Recent contrasting outcomes illustrate this trend: liberals in Romania recently succeeded in electing their candidate—blocking nationalist Eurosceptics—while in Poland right-conservatives celebrate their candidate's victory as head of state.

This reflects a deepening pan-European trend.