IRON CONNECTION

The world has witnessed an event which one may dare to describe as momentous - for the first time in history a telephone conversation has been held between the US and Iranian presidents. Announcing this to journalists in the White House, Barack Obama said he thought it was possible to achieve a comprehensive solution to the Iranian nuclear problem. "I have been speaking on the telephone to the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Rouhani," Obama noted. "We discussed the ongoing efforts aimed at achieving an agreement on Iran's nuclear programme. While there will surely be important obstacles to moving forward and success is in no way guaranteed, nevertheless I believe that we can achieve a comprehensive solution." The president recalled that Iran's spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei once issued a fatwa (religious edict) which bans the production and use of weapons of mass destruction. And the new President of the Islamic Republic Hasan Rouhani said that "Iran will never develop nuclear weapons". "I made it clear that we respect the right of the Iranian people to peaceful nuclear energy in the context of Iran's fulfilment of its commitments," Obama went on.

He said that the US understands the challenges facing it. "The very fact that this was the first contact between the American and Iranian presidents since 1979 underscores the deep mistrust between our countries. But this fact also points to the possibility of overcoming this complex story," the president added.

Essentially, this event has reaffirmed the justification of certain expectations that emerged following the election of the "reformer" Hasan Rouhani linked with the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the problem of the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme. As is known, diplomatic relations between Washington and Tehran were severed over 33 years ago after the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran.

However, following Hasan Rouhani's victory at the presidential elections in Iran Washington and Tehran started to sound out the possibilities of building bridges since a favourable foreign political situation had emerged for this. But the USA has still not extricated itself from the Afghan quagmire and is becoming more and more submerged in the Syrian whirlpool. This being the case, squabbles with Iran are currently central more in a tactical than a strategic sense. As far as Iran is concerned it is extremely important to gain a foothold internationally and regionally solely in the image of a peace-loving state. This also squares with the task of weakening the sanctions regime against the Islamic Republic, which has seriously damaged the interests of the Iranian economy and the more vulnerable sections of the country's population.

Another event testifying to the justification of hopes of achieving a breakthrough at the talks on the problem of Tehran's nuclear programme was the bilateral meeting between US Secretary of State John Kerry and the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif at UN headquarters. In addition, they also attended a meeting between the foreign ministers of the "six" (the five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany) and the Iranian side. All the participants in the talks, who agreed to hold a new meeting between the "six" and the Iranian foreign minister in Geneva on 15-16 October, gave a positive assessment of the New York discussion of Tehran's "nuclear dossier".

US Secretary of State John Kerry admitted that "a lot of work lies ahead. We shall of course get down to it and together we all hope we can achieve concrete results which will help to answer questions linked with Iran's nuclear programme". Javad Zarif, for his part, said that Iran and the international mediators had come to a unanimous opinion of the need to achieve specific agreements on Tehran's nuclear programme during the course of the year.

Bu all accounts, future talks will focus around the question of a 20% enrichment of uranium which, many experts feel, cannot be needed by a country which is engaged in developing  peaceful nuclear energy. The "six" believe that Tehran should confine itself to a maximum of 5% uranium. At the same time, particular attention is drawn to the position of Russia which, through its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is proposing a plan for a step-by-step solution to the problem. The plan boils down to mutual concessions: Iran provides transparency of its nuclear programme, specifically it allows IAEA inspectors to see all the facilities they wish, the US lifts part of the unilateral sanctions against Tehran, Iran gives up its enrichment of uranium to 20%, and then the UN Security Council eases up on its regime of international sanctions against the IRI to the zero level, on the principle "no claims, no sanctions".

The question of Iran ending enrichment of uranium to a level of 20 percent is fundamental for the United States, which has a vested interest in ensuring the security of its closest ally in the region - Israel, whose leaders, by the way, do not at all believe that the new Iranian president is prepared to reach an agreement with the West. It was not by chance that in the context of the American-Iranian vicissitudes within the UN, influential US publications reminded Obama about the position of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who believes Hasan Rouhani's conciliatory gestures are a ruse aimed at gaining time for future uranium enrichment. Speaking at a session of the General Assembly, Netanyahu openly accused the Iranian side of "cynicism" and "hypocrisy" and of aspirations to create nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, the concurrence of positions between Israel and Saudi Arabia on a whole spectrum of Middle East problems, including that of  Iran, seems all the more apparent. Although Tel Aviv and El-Riyadh officially see themselves as irreconcilable enemies, they still manifest complete unanimity in their rejection of the "Shiite Crescent". As Israel's ambassador to the US, Michael Oren, said recently, "the biggest danger to Israel is the strategic arc that extends from Tehran to Damascus and Beirut". And the Saudis, who see themselves as a pillar of the more conservative form of Sunni Islam, are also worried about the growth in influence of the Shiite axis which extends from Iran via Iraq and Syria to the strong territories of the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon. And for Israel and Saudi Arabia it is Iran which is the central focus of their antagonism with regard to weakening its regional influence which in many ways is being provoked from outside by the escalation of the Sunni-Shiite stand-off in Iraq and other "hot spots" of the region. This is also explained by the passing by the Saudis and the Jewish state of a "death sentence" on the ruling regime in Syria. As ambassador Oren openly admits, "we have always wanted Bashar Assad to go, we have always preferred the bad guys who weren't backed by Iran to the bad guys who were".

However, it is entirely possible that Hasan Rouhani will succeed in melting the ice of mistrust, at least in relations with El-Riyadh. In any event, the Iranian president has called for a strengthening of ties between the Islamic Republic and Saudi Arabia, describing the kingdom as a "friend and brother" of his country. Rouhani has sent a clear conciliatory signal to the Saudis, expressing his readiness to "clear away the petty disagreements in order to achieve bilateral interests and the interests of the Islamic world".  

Generally speaking, despite a whole number of restraining circumstances, the probability that diplomacy will find a way out of the complex situation around Iran still exists. It would seem that not only the Iranian but also the western leaders are ready for this. After all, it was not without reason that Obama said that "diplomacy in Syria, based on the threat of war, is a potential model for talks on Iran's nuclear ambitions". 

Whether even not so peaceful diplomacy such as this will lead to a peaceful solution to the Iranian question, in which the whole international community has a vested interest, will become clear as events unfold, including the next round of talks between the "six" and the Islamic Republic.