ANTICRISIS METAL

According to forecasts made by experts several years ago, the global copper market in this decade is expected to experience bullish (upward) trends. These projections were based on a decline in global raw material extraction and, most importantly, dynamic demand in sectors such as electronics, electric vehicle production, “green” energy, and artificial intelligence (AI). US tariff policy also influenced global demand.

The expectations of experts were confirmed by last year’s results: copper prices rose, and this increase continued into January 2026.

Favourable external conditions in 2025 helped Azerbaijan to increase both copper concentrate exports and production.

Growing demand...

Economists have long referred to copper as the “anticrisis metal” and even the “gold of the 21st century”. As the third most consumed metal worldwide after steel and aluminium, copper is expected to maintain high market demand in the foreseeable future.

Industrial demand for copper is rapidly increasing amid the “green” energy transition, expansion of power grids, and installation of main electrical cables. A modern wind turbine with a capacity over 3 MW contains about 5 tonnes of copper. Slightly less copper is required to generate 1 MW from solar panels. To satisfy the constantly growing global demand for electricity, millions of kilometres of power cables and copper wires for transformer windings at substations are needed. Expanding electric vehicle production also requires significant amounts of this “red” metal: electric vehicles use several times more copper than internal combustion engine cars. Copper accounts for about 10% of the battery weight in electric cars. The growing markets for consumer electronics, electrical engineering, and importantly various IT peripherals and computer equipment also create huge demand for copper.

In recent years, a new driver of demand for this non-ferrous metal has been the development of “cloud” infrastructure with powerful data centres supporting the needs of evolving artificial intelligence. Copper now plays a key role in AI infrastructure. Launching data centres for AI development requires new substations, transformers, cable lines, cooling systems, and vast amounts of electricity worldwide.

According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, electricity consumption by data centres alone will increase from approximately 415 TWh in 2024 to 945 TWh by 2030, with server electricity consumption for AI expected to grow by around 30% annually under the baseline scenario. It is also forecast that in developed countries data centres will account for over 20% of electricity demand growth by 2030. This implies not only an increase in server numbers but also a sharp expansion of all associated energy infrastructure. According to American corporation S&P Global, by 2030 the US economy will consume more electricity for data processing than for producing all energy-intensive goods combined, including aluminium, steel, and cement.

It is clear that this requires substantial quantities of copper, which possesses excellent thermal and electrical conductivity. Under the most optimistic World Bank (WB) scenario, the index of non-ferrous metal prices is expected to rise by 2% during 2026-2027. The largest increases are projected for aluminium, nickel, tin, and copper; copper and tin may break nominal dollar records, while aluminium, copper, and tin markets are expected to remain tight at least until 2027 due to ongoing supply constraints.

WB experts note that non-ferrous metal production was restrained in 2025 and will remain so over the coming years, with copper production affected by disruptions at mining enterprises and production limits. Over the past five to seven years, copper production interruptions have primarily occurred at depleting old deposits in South America.

…while production declines

Global copper production stands at about 23-24 million tonnes annually; in some countries this figure is not only stagnant but declining. Significant decreases in global copper ore reserves at exploited deposits have been confirmed by mining interruptions. Commissioning new deposits is limited by their geographical remoteness and high capital intensity of development. To prevent metal shortages, copper industry enterprises need to attract more than $100 billion in investments.

Declining global copper output amid steady demand causes market shortages. This situation worsened in July last year due to US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement imposing a 50% duty on imported copper. US authorities later decided to implement tariffs gradually. Nevertheless, traders sought to exploit higher prices on the American Comex metal exchange and avoid possible import duties in coming years. These actions stimulated speculative stockpiling of copper in the US ahead of anticipated tariffs, becoming another cause of sharp price growth in 2025.

As a result, from January to December last year spot market copper prices rose by 41%, with a new record futures contract high exceeding $12,000 per tonne registered on the London Metal Exchange at December’s end. Demand reached a record peak due to fears of global metal shortages, declining production, and ongoing stock accumulation in the US, China and other countries.

In late January 2026, copper prices hit another record on exchanges surpassing $14,000 per tonne. However, by March prices exhibited high volatility fluctuating between $11,500 and $13,200 per tonne. This decline is partly linked to the Middle East war and shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf. According to S&P Global analysts, rising energy costs slow economic growth thereby reducing industrial copper demand. On the other hand, renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors rely heavily on government subsidies, which face risks of reduction potentially negatively impacting copper markets as well.

Despite some price declines on exchanges, experts do not rule out continuation of the price rally in 2026. Specialists at Citigroup Inc., the largest financial conglomerate in the US, believe copper could rise to $15,000 per tonne by early 2027. This trend reflects continuing market deficits and limited supply from mining companies.

Opportunities for Azerbaijan

Positive changes in external conditions open good opportunities for Azerbaijan given its resource potential and mining-processing plants. In 2025 Azerbaijan produced over 8,144 tonnes of copper concentrate—a 32.6-fold increase compared to two years earlier. According to the “Export Review” by the Centre for Economic Reforms and Communications Analysis, Azerbaijan’s exports of copper ore and concentrates totalled $56.8 million in 2025—27 times higher than in 2024.

It is possible that production volumes will increase significantly this year considering plans to expand raw material bases. According to State Statistics Committee data, 2,467 tonnes of copper concentrate were produced in January-February this year—a 6.9-fold increase.

Copper mining in Azerbaijan is undertaken by state-owned AzerGold Closed Joint Stock Company (CJSC) and private Anglo-Asian Mining (AAM). The main markets are European countries; since 2019 supplies have also been made to Uzbekistan.

In recent years investment expansion into developing the country’s copper deposits has been noted. Alongside relatively older contract sites Gadabay and Gosha, AAM is developing three new porphyry deposits.

Overall, according to its strategic development plan, AAM intends by 2029 to make copper mining its main product with expected annual production of 50-55 thousand tonnes in copper equivalent.

AAM specialists are successfully developing the Demirli site located in the Garabagh economic region with reserves of about 275 thousand tonnes of copper and 3.2 thousand tonnes of molybdenum. The mining-processing complex covering an area of 929 hectares includes a flotation plant for copper processing, a wet waste storage facility, an electric substation and other infrastructure. Its reconstruction involved private investment of ₼15.3 million based on Turkish and German technologies. The flotation plant’s processing capacity is 5.6 million tonnes of ore. The final product is planned for export to China.

AzerGold has equally ambitious plans on this track: CJSC intends to commission four copper ore deposits by 2028. In the long term it aims to develop Europe’s second largest polymetallic deposit Filizchay, with total resources estimated at 120 million tonnes containing reserves of copper, lead, zinc and silver. According to updated data, Filizchay could bring Azerbaijan over ₼10 billion.

According to Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic data, copper deposits are also found in Gadabay, Kalbajar, Garadagh and Ordubad ore districts.

Thus for Azerbaijan the current market conditions open a window not only for increasing raw material exports but also gradually strengthening positions within global non-ferrous metal supply chains. Under these circumstances further development of mining projects and investments in processing could become one of the drivers for diversifying the national economy.